Homoeopathy in perspective

Background

Homoeopathy is a field of alternative medicine based on the belief that highly diluted ingredients which cause certain symptoms in healthy individuals will cure those symptoms in sick ones. Some common homoeopathic remedies include arsenic for diarrhoea, anthrax for acne and duck liver for colds and flu. To remove the risk of poisoning or even killing patients, the remedies available for sale in pharmacies have been prepared by repeatedly diluting and shaking the mixture with water between each stage of dilution, to the point where not only the toxicity, but in many cases even the last remaining molecule of the active ingredient disappears completely. Homoeopathic drops and pills are therefore likely to contain only the solvent (mostly water) and sometimes sugar or the ‘carrier’ substance in the case of tablets. For this very reason, homoeopathic remedies are often not controlled and tested for safety like real evidence-based medicine, which occasionally allows a potentially dangerous substance to slip through the cracks of general ignorance.

Homoeopaths freely admit to these facts, but for very obvious financial reasons you are not likely to find it explicitly spelled out like that on the little boxes and bottles of water and sugar-pills for sale as ‘medicine’ at your local pharmacy. Instead, they use a special notation for the dilution factor next to the active ingredients (which are almost always described in Latin), which is likely to be seen as just another complex chemical term or symbol by average users.

Very, very few people who see the words  Anas Barbariae Hepatis et Cordis Extractum 200CK on their flu ‘medicine’ will know that it means a homoeopath took some duck liver and heart extract, mixed it with 100 times as much water, emptied the container of 99% of its content, filled it up with water again, threw out 99%, filled it up with water and then repeated this process 197 more times, before finally taking the by then pure water left in the container after the 200th step, and selling it as something that will cure colds and flu. Oh, and don’t forget that the container was shaken during each step. So, not only was the original ingredient a disgusting medieval witches’ brew of duck innards, but ironically the final product people pay for does not contain anything but water or inert carrier material.

Given the Latin names and cryptic dilution shorthand, it’s almost as if homoeopaths are trying to hide something, isn’t it? When pressed to explain the supposed healing mechanism that pure water will have for anything from dandruff to AIDS, they will revert to waffling about healing spirits and scientifically invisible ‘energies’ that their shaking is supposed to charge the water with. Natura South Africa even states flat-out (my bold) on their website that:

The remedy is prepared by repeatedly diluting and succussing (shaking) the substance between each stage of dilution. This process is known as ‘potentisation’. After each stage of dilution, the remedy becomes less chemically active and more energetically active. Eventually the remedy will contain no molecules of the original substance and will only be energetically active.

No further explanation is given for ‘energetically active’ water, and naive readers will be mislead into thinking that it is an accepted relevant scientific term. This method is almost identical to that described by an 18th century physician named Samuel Hahnemann, who invented homoeopathy based on a single atypical reaction when he developed fever after taking some quinine. Homoeopathy is considered quackery or pseudoscience by mainstream medical science, and this post is an attempt to explain the reasons for this skepticism without citing the usual credible medical research that can find no differences between the effects of homoeopathic remedies and placebo.

Instead, my purpose is to put the incredible effects of serial dilution into perspective by computing the size of a gel capsule needed to deliver just one molecule of the original ingredient in some commonly available homoeopathic remedies. I recently had an argument about homoeopathy with a friend who claimed to have taken a popular homoeopathic flu remedy called Oscillococcinum. When I told him that he actually took only pure water, he insisted that I must be wrong, since the packaging clearly shows Anas Barbariae Hepatis et Cordis Extractum 200CK as the active ingredient. Like so many others, he had been mislead by packaging that mimics real medicine, and although this post wont convince any homoeopaths that their claims are just wishful thinking with some water, it may surprise a few people who thought they knew what they were paying for.

After some mildly interesting maths and a little first-year chemistry, I was able to derive the following formula for the length of a standard-proportion gel capsule in metres, given the factor used to dilute the original substance in X-notation.

Results

Dilution Factor	Length of gel capsule required to deliver 1 molecule of the active ingredient	Comparable to
X24 (C12)	7.49 cm	A Bic cigarette lighter.
X30 (C15)	7.49 m	Roughly the size of a large fuel lorry tank.
X60 (C30)	74899919 km	About half the distance between the Earth and the Sun.
X400 (C200)	light years	More than a long scale billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion times the size of the observable universe.

The last dilution factor is used for Oscillococcinum, sold by a company called Boiron. It is made from duck livers and hearts (at least it starts off with that), and has been the topic of a very interesting study undertaken by the Cochrane collaboration. The section “Risk of bias in included studies” in that document is typical of homoeopathic studies that claim to show results better than placebo – shoddy methodology, small sample sizes and other statistical tricks used to skew results.

These results should speak for themselves; homoeopathic remedies at these dilution factors contain nothing but water, and any claims about efficacy made by true believers can only be the result of simple placebo or confirmation bias due to regression to the mean, i.e. getting better like they would have even if they had not taken the homoeopathic water. The ‘healing energy’ or ‘healing spirits’ claimed by homoeopaths can not be measured, and probably does not exist.

For anyone interested in checking my maths, feel free to read on.

Dogma over kindness, superstition-based moralism over humaneness

AC Grayling has written a brilliant critique of an attempt by UK religious nuts to block progressive new legislation regarding assisted suicide and euthanasia.  The opening paragraph really says it all:

News that the archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams, the archbishop of Westminster, Vincent Nichols and the chief rabbi, Sir Jonathan Sacks, have joined forces in a campaign to prolong the sufferings of those incurably or terminally ill – by opposing a change in the law that would decriminalise those who accompany anyone who goes to Switzerland in search of help to die – comes as no surprise. A preference for dogma over kindness, for superstition-based moralism over humaneness, is standard fare for religion, as history too loudly attests.
…

And yes, I just called the archbishop of Canterbury a nut. As someone with first-hand experience of the incredible suffering he and his cronies are trying to prolong in the name of their imaginary friend’s supposed ‘love’, I am more than qualified to call him whatever I want, including a fucking sanctimonious old fossil who deserves to get something slow and painful and then be denied the release of death for several years. For an educated, supposedly compassionate adult in his position to choose bronze-age superstition over simple human kindness is a telling example of the power of religion to confuse, corrupt and ultimately, harm.

The Core of the Apple

South African Apple fans may be aware that there is a bit of a media storm raging around Stop Core, a protest site that takes aim at the sole distributor of Apple products in SA, Core Group, and specifically their pricing structures and service levels.

I own several Apple products and have vowed to never, ever again buy a PC, but I completely agree that we are paying way too much for Apple products, with very poor service levels. You can find two things over at a MyBroadband article: background and a summary of the whole sordid story, but also this little gem that I found particularly funny:

5th paragraph:

Van Spaandonk said that Core Group is definitely not a monopoly as suggested by Stop Core…

10th paragraph:

Core Group explained that it is the only authorized distributor of Apple products in South Africa and that many consumers may burn their fingers with grey Apple imports from alternative local resellers.

I don’t see how anyone can consider ‘grey’ imports (without services, guarantees and warranties) an acceptable alternative to those supplied by Core, so they remain the sole seller of authorized Apple products in South Africa, and therefore, a monopoly.

I’m no economist, but I’m pretty sure that Mr Van Spaandonk’s foot must be at least partially digested by now. Maybe even a bit of leg, as well.

Carnival time!

I’ve been incredibly busy the last couple of weeks (at the office until 23:00-busy, in case you think I’m exagerrating) and haven’t been able to do much else, which includes blogging. Despite that, I was pleasantly surprised to see an incoming link from the 8th Carnival of the Africans, over at Amanuensis. Go check it out!

Hope springs eternal. But probably not.

Up late waiting for the iPhone OS 3.0 installation to complete, and I just couldn’t resist sharing this one.

Isn’t sanctimony a sin?

In the first two weeks of June, I started to notice several billboards like the one below all over my home town of Pretoria.

Translation: South Africa, turn back to GOD!

The wording on the Afrikaans billboards appear to be aimed at ex-Christians like myself to turn back to God, while the English versions and website simply order everyone to turn to God. Since I’m not a dog, my first response to anything that screams direct orders at me is to ask why. What’s in it for me, and since the message is so ambitiously aimed at the entire South Africa, what’s in it for the country?

As someone who grew up Christian, I know all the reasons your average South African Christian will give to justify a campaign like this:

1. That Christianity provides a solid moral and ethical foundation that can address problems like crime, drug use, the spread of AIDS, greed, corruption and various other issues that South Africa is struggling with.
2. That our problems are punishments from God for abandoning him, and that we should appease him by returning to our churches, Bibles and prayers.
3. That Christianity is an uplifting and inclusive religion of compassion, hope and love that promotes charity and altruistic behaviour to benefit the millions of desperately needy South Africans.
4. That spreading Christianity is a Biblical imperative; the duty of every Christian and therefore admirable and praiseworthy behaviour.

The first three are false, delusional or irrelevant, and the fourth is merely the means by which the Christian meme spreads to infect more minds; very likely added to the Bible by a few visionary priests to ensure a little future job security for them and their successors.

No matter the truth or relevance of my claims above, this whole campaign is an appallingly sanctimonious waste of money (lots of money) that could have been better spent:

• Adherents to other religions, agnostics and atheists will either ignore it or be offended. The nett effect on them is at best zero, and likely negative.
• The many moderate Christians who practise a subtle, quiet and above all private faith will be offended by the loud arrogance. Again, zero or negative effect.
• A few passive or inactive church members will be made to feel guilty, and attempt to revive their faith. If they end up giving money to charity or teaching their kids to be good citizens, that’s great, but they could (and should) have been doing the same things by completely secular means. Those so weak-minded that they can only be made to behave ethically trough religious coercion or fear of hell are not quite the type of citizens society needs, in any case.
• About the only group who could possibly be glad to see these billboards are Christians who consider themselves already ‘turned to God’. The only effect will be for them to have their faith and world-view reaffirmed with a pretty lime green billboard, and to feel a little self-righteous moral superiority.

Thus, these billboards add absolutely nothing of any value to South Africa. Their only purpose is to take money that could have been better spent to make a group of seriously deluded and misguided people feel good about themselves.

But wait, it gets much, much worse. If you visit the turn2god website and read their ‘story behind the story‘ page, there’s almost no mention of altruism and morality. Instead, one Elza Meyer claims that the campaign was inspired by the following event:

Tydens die Oos-Kaap konferensie was daar ’n aanval van die bose op my liggaam. Ons kon nie die effek daarvan gebreek kry nie, totdat ek laatnag my seun, Pieter, gebel het en hom gevra het om vir my te bid. Hy het 10 miljoen siele, gered en gedoop, geëis in ruil vir die aanslag op my lewe. Dit het onmiddellik geëindig. Moreletapark Gemeente is deur die Here gelei om ’n nuwe doelwit vir die gemeente te formuleer nl. 10 miljoen siele binne 10 jaar. Die oorhoofse doelwit is om 10 miljoen siele met die evangelie te bereik en hulle dissipels van Jesus te maak.

Roughly translated, she claims that the forces of evil physically attacked her (the details remain mysterious, like God’s ways), and the effects only went away after her son pledged 10 million converted human souls to God. The campaign is part of Moreleta Park congregation’s project to fulfil that promise. In any other context, friendly men in white coats would be dragging these people into padded cells, but once again, religion provides the ultimate excuse for delusional behaviour. Her story is filled with visions, voices, miracles and mention of lots of other people who share these delusions and biases.

There’s very little I can say about all this that hasn’t been said before, so here’s a relevant quote from one of the greatest thinkers of the 20th century.

It says quantum, so it must be true.

It seems that more and more pseudoscientific claims these days are ‘explained’ by the inventor or proponent simply invoking a reliance on Quantum Mechanics, after which the media and general public seem to almost willingly lose all ability to use common sense. The recent waffling by Danie Krugel and his faithful followers on yet another poorly researched Carte Blanche episode is an excellent example. The reasoning behind this is probably something in the line of:

1. The invention/procedure seems unbelievable, weird or counter-intuitive, but the inventor/proponent claims it is scientific.
2. Quantum Mechanics is scientific, but also makes unbelievable, weird our counter-intuitive claims.
3. Therefore the invention/procedure must be based on Quantum Mechanics.

The plural of anecdote is not evidence

In a recent Carte Blanche episode featuring Danie Krugel, a certain Prof Heleen Coetzee was quoted with:

“I think he’s done enough to show that this thing works. I know that there are certain ways of doing research, where if you have done enough of the same thing, and you get the same results, statistically it is provable that this thing is right.”

Well, every time I stop at a red traffic light, I use the power of my mind to make it go green, and so far, it has always worked after a few seconds of intense concentration. Therefore, according to Prof Coetzee’s version of science, I must have genuine telekinetic powers. Can I get my Carte Blanche interviews and Randi million now?

I am sure most 10-year olds can spot the flaw in that, but oh no, not Prof Coetzee, and certainly not the Carte Blanche team who gave her airtime. So, because I’m too busy with real work right now, a little bit from the archives to explain why Prof Coetzee is so incredibly wrong.

The right to die with dignity.

Today was my late maternal grandmother’s birthday – a woman who, in some sense, played a bigger role in raising me than my mother did. Every year when the cosmos start to appear by the roadside I think of her, and every year on 7 April I struggle with my memories of her death, and quietly rage against the fact that so many people are denied the right to die with dignity, or even to think that they have that option.

Free Speech, Hate Speech, the UN and YouTube

I could not agree more.

Posted by Heidi on Facebook.